Вероятность передачи ВИЧ от "активного" партнёра к "пассивному" действительно намного выше, чем в обратном направлении, но порядок величины именно такой, как я назвал.
(См., например, здесь and references therein): The sexual transmission dynamics of HIV is different from other sexually transmitted infections (STI) because the risk of HIV transmission via sexual intercourse (vaginal or anal) is generally several hundred times lower compared to most other STI. The probability of HIV transmission per sexual act of vaginal intercourse, or infectivity (p), has been estimated from prospective studies of HIV-discordant partners. Published estimates of transmission probabilities per act vary from p =0·0001 (1 per 10,000) to 0·0014 (1 per 700) in USA and European studies of discordant couples and to p =0·002 (1 per 500) in Thai couples. HIV transmission rates, as estimated by heterosexual partner studies in the USA and Uganda, indicate that the risk of HIV transmission from an infected male to a susceptible female is about 1 per 1,000 unprotected coital acts. The Ugandan sex partner study estimated transmission from an infected female to a susceptible male at about 1 per 900 whereas the American study estimated the risk to be about 1 per 8,000. The higher risk of female to male transmission in Africa may be related to the greater prevalence of facilitating factors a in SSA populations compared to most other populations.
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От женщины к мужчине да, от мужчины к женщине - намного выше.
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(См., например, здесь and references therein):
The sexual transmission dynamics of HIV is different from other sexually transmitted infections (STI) because the risk of HIV transmission via sexual intercourse (vaginal or anal) is generally several hundred times lower compared to most other STI. The probability of HIV transmission per sexual act of vaginal intercourse, or infectivity (p), has been estimated from
prospective studies of HIV-discordant partners. Published estimates of transmission probabilities per act vary from p =0·0001 (1 per 10,000) to 0·0014 (1 per 700) in USA and European studies of discordant couples and to p =0·002 (1 per 500) in Thai couples.
HIV transmission rates, as estimated by heterosexual partner studies in the USA and Uganda, indicate that the risk of HIV transmission from an infected male to a susceptible female is about 1 per 1,000 unprotected coital acts. The Ugandan sex partner study estimated transmission from an infected female to a susceptible male at about 1 per 900 whereas the American study estimated the risk to be about 1 per 8,000. The higher risk of female to male transmission in Africa may be related to the greater prevalence of facilitating factors a in SSA populations compared to most other populations.